Відео

The "west". World remembers. History remembers. When the power and wealth shifts back to the East, you all better pray your new Russian Chinese masters look upon you with mercy and kindness.

Can't beat em put more tariffs. Every country does this. Nothing new at all

Use and throw products

Free Market for me not for thee.

Trump bragged constantly about how great he was making the economy, even though it wasn't actually improving significantly, and his followers basically just accepted it as true. Biden doesn't brag much, and even if he did, his followers are more skeptical. Unfortunately, media economic negativity does seem to influence them significantly, however.

When switching from a state investment driven growth model to consumption, we're essentially talking about labor reforms to increase wages. And that's happening rapidly in China despite the recent stagnation. Also, they've invested in so many different sectors that a failure of one (e.g., property) won't necessarily cascade to the others (e.g., banking, auto, electronics, high tech, etc.). It seems like only a matter of time before the switch to consumption catches up and stamps out its current stagnation, but yes, that all depends on Xi.

A fixed supply of bitcoin will not work. There is limited supply of oil and solar energy. ua-cam.com/video/kZA9Hnp3aV4/v-deo.html ... 6 cycles of power supply + Jupiter ua-cam.com/video/4tMRfbSUTX4/v-deo.html

The service economy is flawed as well, the US had loss a large amount of its factories due to capitalists seeking to increase their profits. Causing American workers to go into the service and consumer economy probably is now when no wants those services or Starbucks 😂. The economy experiences a downturn, Chinas strategy of continuing manufacturing is smart and from reports I have read they are interested in growing their service economy as well they are doing a dual strategy. Looking forward to what the future holds for China and seeing how things play out

So now the govornment is forcing me to buy an EV but doesn't let me buy the cheap and good ones. Instead, I have to by the same EV at twice the cost to keep ineffciient, multimilliond dollar companys running at the cost of the consumer. Proteccionism allways hurts the common people and benefits a small group of bussinessman that run uncompetitive and ineffcieint companies.

He's quite involved in the intelligence community. Not a free actor

Very insightful

I think it’s really important to keep in mind that interest rates are going to scale with increasing cost. What I mean by this is a lower interest rate on a higher cost mortgage may still be very expensive even compared to a high interest rate on a lower cost mortgage. Rough example: say you buy a house in 1980. The average home price in the USA was about $47,000 and interest rates in 1980 were at about 13%. You borrow half the price as a mortgage ($23,000). So your monthly interest payments are going to be about $249 ($949 in 2024 dollars). Now say you buy a home in 2024. The average price is about $870,000 and interest rates are about 7%. You also pay half down and take $435,000 out as a mortgage. In this case your monthly interest payments are going to be about $2,500. Even with an interest rate almost half of what it was in 1980 you’re still paying over twice as much in interest because the initial cost of the mortgage is sooooooo much higher.

I think what is entirely missing from both of these arguments is the fact that China has heavily invested in many countries in Africa and successfully managed to build relationships where the US has failed to do so. China has successfully created an increase in opportunities across the continent, supplied them with infrastructure and access to more affordable goods / services. I have no doubt China would utilise these relationships in the future should they eventually be pushed to do so.

Great analysis. Some econometric study relating the three factors to house prices would be interesting. Although I guess the first factor (NIMBY effect or upzoning) would be the hardest to quantity

Thanks!

When people begin to realize that something has gone too far, like overdependence on too complex global supply chains, they react as if everything about international trade is bad. The best case is rarely one extreme or the other, but judicious moderation. Import for efficiency, on-shore for security. Both, not either-or.

I believe you missed one very important option: globalization without the West. In fact, demographics, health, and education are dramatically shifting the importance and 'weight' from the West to Asia, South America, and Africa. These continents will soon have the largest consumer base in the world. Asia, particularly China, is cooperating, investing, and expanding its influence, whereas the West still operates on the basis of resource extraction and military dominance. Therefore, it appears that we are moving towards a scenario of globalization between Asia, Africa, and South America, while the 'old world' of former colonial powers is being outpaced and clinging to their lost power, brandishing their war axes all the way...

The central failure point is that the industry leaders, whether they are party elites or just wealthy businesspeople, think that they got rich by paying people as little as possible, and don't recognize that continuing to do so is the limiting factor in their own incomes. It's zero sum thinking, which is just dumb. Business is entirely about creating new stuff, so how can the total amount of stuff be fixed?

Are you for real? Russia is not a free democracy that is why it doesn't grow. Free capitalism and free democracies (libertarianism) are the factors that determine wealth all across history and across the world, if you believe otherwise, not only do you support hunger and corruption, you are an ignorant on the most basic aspects of human nature, as capitalism is a cultural manifestation of the nature of life itself that is why it works. I could argue that every movement that goes against capitalism without knowing goes against life itself both in theory, and in practice as you can see communism is responsible for the deaths of millions of people. It is proven that the more power you give to the government the poorer the nation as the government is the problem and not the solution. The only downside of capitalism is that it has create such wealth that allows individuals to have a lot of free time to create a fantasy world and teach fake theories in the university who then propagate, humans are not meant for abundance and so we grow weak, less productive, stupid, and start believing in lies and even go against the very thing that allows us to have time to enjoy, we give everything for granted, we never learn. Politicians are the first ones in this category as they don't produce anything and so they don't have a clue and we allow them to rule.

So, transitory won

Free trade works among economies that share the same currency and free flow of labor. Free trade is foolish if the so-called "partners" are also fundamentally enemies.

The West did NOT start the trade war. The Chinese started the trade war decades ago. You could say that the Chinese started the trade war centuries ago, OK?

Meanwhile in indonesia there are massive DE-industrialization happening now . factory bankrupt everyday. Every product that indonesia make , china can make it 1/10 the price . now indonesian people can only build restaurant , hotel and retail store .

To be fair I think you understated how protectionist the west always has been, even during eras of increased globalization. Agricultural sectors were always heavily subsidsed in Europe and the US, and the pressure of liberalization in the last century has been specially to liberalize sectors in which the US and Europe are highly competitive as opposed to liberalizing the whole economy. It wasn't Russia and China that started the trend of deglobalization, it is in fact a response to something that has already been going on for ages

Your reasoning don't holds water.

This video is pretty weak itself, although I agree with a lot of it. Chinas property bubble is manageable, because the CCP tries to pop it themselves? Lol what? Didn't even go into the property market percentage of gdp, how it's only gotten worse , and the 59 trillion dollar mountain of debt. Also a lot of this guys answers are "the government has addressed these concerns" lmfao what? Hilarious.

Because so many people overpaid for homes even while loan rates were low, I believe there will be a housing catastrophe because these people are in debt. If housing costs continue to drop and, for whatever reason, they can no longer afford the property and it goes into foreclosure, they have no equity since, even if they try to sell, they will not make any money. I believe that many individuals will experience this, especially given the impending mass layoffs and rapidly rising living expenses.

14:46 so you are misrepresenting Zeihans argument. He is claiming, China imports 60% of energy inputs and over 90% food production inputs. For these inputs to come all trade routes have to be safe. There are many countries on the train routes paths, That have issues with China. Huthies blocked a trade route. Imagine what the country with a functioning military can do. China’s navy is a short range one. They cannot project power. That is why their system is dependent on global peace. Which you might argue is a good thing as long as there is peace.

The US is steadily decoupling from China as fast as it can, because of this geopolitical threat. A second trade war would only accelerate this decoupling. China IS steadily collapsing. It continues to behave as a bully and bad actor, even though its economy is hugely dependent still on the goodwill of other countries and free global trade and the ability to ship its good and its raw material needs (oil, raw materials for its industries and food production) through open and safe shipping lanes. If war ever breaks out over Taiwan, within six months, China would be faced with a massive famine. But Xi seems to be preparing for that, telling the Chinese people to be prepared for severe hardships soon.

I’m Malaysian, you can talk any horse crap about China, but we all know that everything you talk about is lie, we are waiting for China to take back Taiwan, we will show our full support no matter the cost.

"Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely." If such a system is implemented, putting the word 'democratic' in front of it would be like Democratic People's Republic of Korea: it would be anything but. You forgot to mention another huge risk of such technology (and this has been discussed extensively, even if not directly about Digital Currencies): If a massive Solar Event (like the Carrington Event, which occurred in 1859) happened when such a system was implemented, that would be that your money would be basically gone, turned into nothing, because even if somehow some big banks had the measures and the redundancies to protect their servers, not all do and then the whole electric grid would be affected. Third World countries would fall into chaos (you mentioned India) as they are the last on the line to invest on such unpredictable event. And such phenomenon (the big one, as there are many dangerous one, even if not that big) is estimated to occur between 100 and 200 years, so we could be well withing the range of a next one.

Baby boomer retirement from work in particularly the construction industry has caused massive shortages of skilled trades to do, the building. Also the nimby type people cause enormous disruption of planning applications which leads to less appartments and high density housing. As a retire Architect (40 year) this has become a major issue with most new developments a real headache. I would say it’s been obvious in Australia the entry of cashed up investors has increased house prices by a least 20% plus . Finally migration over the past two years of 600,000 + annually has added fuel to the housing fire to push prices higher again. I recommend the immediately removal of investment tax deduction on all investment homes except new builds. The additional tax saved by the government to be injected into new green field development around country towns. All governments Federal and State to build single room apartments with ensuites for the homeless people starting immediately. Small high rise to eight storey with community lounges on each floor , I refer to the Danish successful program (2016 to 2024) to remove 95% of homeless from major city streets .

Central Bank is an Empire Killer love it

@notusneo When you have already won the racist lying war. It is congenital. What name do you go by?! I am white?! ua-cam.com/video/NtK3_84FtlE/v-deo.htmlsi=VGFS4cCuOEhUPXmR

Infant industry protection sounds like in online video games there is matchmaking to make sure people compete with people somewhat similar to them to have an enjoyable experienced. I suspect you could really use this concept to quickly raise people's skills

Italy, German and Japan: Aliies 🤡

US will have to bow down to new master, China soon

As a Chinese living in the US for 10 years, your video matches my perception very well.

The claim that people in the US suffered is a hoax. Unemployment is very low and very few people want to work in factories. TSMC and Intel are struggling to hire workers for their new fabs which are much higher (and nicer) jobs than the type of manufacturing China does.

You won't understand Zeihan because he studies patterns in the macro and accounts for intersectionality of diverse factors while most of Academia and the public refuses to understand things as infinitely interconnected. People egoticstically perceive their interests to be special, so they won't accept, for example, that interstate infrastructure investment has a big impact on the development and nature of the Arts, or that music trends can influence charitibility towards wildlife conservation, but nonetheless: these things are connected in ways that challenge people's identity and sense of self, so they don't think about them.

More housing needs to be build. Key is to make it possible to build 2 or 3 units on a single family lot without getting punished.

There is something to it but 60 per seems too steep of a discount.

Ray has no credibility on this topic. He is too dependent on CCP to be honest.

why west not being democratic and support free trade, I am saying this as a Turk

Greed

Excellent analysis - seems good. One quibble; one missing driver of rental costs. Quibble: EVERYONE has a mortgage! Our economist comments that mortgage costs aren't a factor for everyone - "not everyone has a mortgage" (i.e. renters). Wrong. Everyone pays a mortgage, because every property is - or could be - mortgaged. If you're paying rent, most of that rent is paying your landlord's mortgage. So you don't HAVE a mortgage, but you're certainly paying it. The day you stop doing that is the day your landlord needs to evict you & find someone who pays: they're not a charity. Economic costs are economic costs: doesn't matter who contracts for them; the economy ensures we all pay them. That's not evil or wrong; it just is what it is. Ignoring that fact is why the Video missed Driver #4 Trying to suppress this fact politically ALWAYS comes back to bite you in the ass. For instance, years of rent controls in Canada left landlords unable to pay for maintenance (which runs down & degrades properties), and unable to pay the mortgage (forcing them to sell to someone else who re-mortgages but also finds a way to evict everyone - say for a complete renovation, likely long overdue. Add more politics in support of renters: law saying landlords have to hold units for those evicted, renew their tenure at the old rent. Insane! The landlord has just paid for substantial renos, still has mortgage costs, & they're supposed to hold your place & rent? NO other product is treated like this in the marketplace. Result: landlords refuse to buy/hold & operate rental properties. They opt out. Instead, builders cater to condo buyers: they build (partially financed by deposits from buyers), sell piecemeal & they're out. No more problem. Individual buyers of condos can then occupy or rent them out: their problem. Turns out they don't want the risk of long-term rental either, so they rent only on AirBnB short-term, where they CAN have someone evicted if they squat. Now you're building lots of rental units, but the cost per unit goes WAY up: AirBnB is taking a cut (20%+?) and you're paying a premium for short-term rental. BBBBut - say renters - we killed Rent Controls! Sure, old renters are STILL protected with rent controls to some extent, but NEW properties being built are exempt, have been for a few years now. Nope. First, you've already screwed landlords & burned the market. They know you'll re-institute rent controls in a heartbeat if there's immediate political gain for doing it. They WILL NOT take the risk for 30 years that you'll stick to the rules you've announced. Especially since any old properties they hold are STILL subject to rent controls. Second, landlords got SCREWED BIG TIME during COVID: the government banned evictions (understandably) during the Covid shut-down, even if people couldn't pay the rent. Understandable, because so many businesses couldn't operate so people weren't being paid, couldn't make the rent. Fair enough, but no one told banks that mortgage payments were suspended: costs of capital (mortgage) & operations (maintenance & ops for the buildings) continued through the pandemic shutdown. Landlords were expected to keep paying for all that with NO income coming in from many renters. WORSE: the whole work-from-home thing resulted in government services grinding to a halt. Many (most?) gov't employees have continued to demand right to work from home. Bureaucracies aren't functioning, including the Landlord Tenant Board: it takes landlords upwards of 18-20 months to evict someone, during which time they live rent-free by refusing to pay rent. The Covid measure that authorized them to stall on rent for a while lasted only a few months, but it normalized the practice of refusing to pay rent. Grinding bureaucracy to a halt so landlords COULDN'T evict let more & more people drag out non-payment for almost 2 years! And a huge number of people are doing this now: the Landlord Tenant Board's backlog is growing exponentially. This is your #4 reason: Politics of Rent Controls I'd argue political measures favoring renters & screwing landlords is the biggest single problem driving up rent costs in Toronto & Vancouver. Don't know about other countries. Economics is economics; the market is the market. If you try to game it for one group's advantage, it'll work short-term, but backfire long-term. What you seek to create - stable rents - can't be produced by gaming the market - screwing landlords - without, long-term, skewing the market overall. Sure, some long-term tenants now have VERY low rent & it won't go up to market level so long as they have tenure. Famously, rents in NYC were held down for decades. They've been held down in Toronto now for decades. But you skew the market: landlords WILL NOT invest, won't buy multi-unit rental properties. Doesn't matter that you've lifted controls on new construction: you might drop rent controls again. You've killed trust in market players that the market can function without you gaming it again. Result: renters are screwed. Can this be fixed? That's not a problem you can fix easily. Only solution I can think of is that government would have to legislate - as Constitutional Law - some kind of commitment to NEVER legislating rent controls in future. Without that assurance, no one's taking on a 30 year mortgage to provide multi-unit rental housing. They'll just build & sell condos. The question is whether this solution is politically viable. It means handing a cudgel to left-wing parties who cater to renters - who want rent controls. Bottom line in politics is that no one loves landlords; no one minds beating up on landlords. So I don't see this problem being resolved soon. Work-arounds aren't Government is trying to fix this with subsidies for construction. The economic risk is too great: builders will be happy to take the subsidy so long as they can sell the building once constructed: that risk needs to be passed to someone else. Good luck selling the building. Result is subsidies aren't resulting in expected construction. Add to that your NIMBY issue In Toronto the time line & cost of construction is less than 1/2 total time & cost: the budget for legal & bureaucratic approval in Toronto is MORE than actual construction cost & time. A 100 unit building under construction now west of the University of Toronto has logged 5 years to get past City Hall's bureaucracy; actual build will now take about 3 years. And the up-front legal costs during that 5 years are way more than actual cost of construction. That kind of nonsense is a substantial impediment to creation of more housing.

Michael Pettis & Matthew Klein (2020). Trade Wars are Class Wars; Yale University Press - This book contains everything you need to know.

One thing is the amount of wasted GDP in infrastructure that is never fully utilized if utilized at all. Second is how much infrastructure is over valued because its service life will be considerably shorter than projected due to shoddy construction.

I want to hear more similar stories about Norway and Singapore since this two countries has the largest state owned/sovereign wealth fund ❤

Cant we have competent tyrants or benevolent doctors instead of morons,